Bearish ATHs

The news from Planet Ruby—Friday, June 21, 2024

• Signal: Wave 5
• Noise: Wave 4

The NASDAQ has hit a new all-time high above 20,000, helped by tech stocks making significant gains. This is particularly true of Nvidia, which was worth almost $3.5 trillion at one point this week, briefly overtaking Microsoft as the largest company on the planet.

It's not just the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 has also been making new highs, even as the dollar shows renewed strength. The DXY reclaimed 105 last week and remains well above that level (curently 105.7). That should be a headwind for risk, and there are some analysts who are warning of a significant correction for stocks, but it has yet to materialize and there's no way of knowing when the top might come in.

At the G7, Larry Fink drew attention to problems of debt and growth. Average debt-to-GDP for G7 countries is 129%.

Underscoring the point, interest payments on the US debt edged above defense spending. Probably nothing to see here.

And, in the UK, inflation has finally come back to the Bank of England target of 2%: A welcome but ultimately futile boost for an embattled government whose party will, according to all the polls, be wiped out in the General Election on July 4.

Bitcoin Chops Some More

The mood in the crypto space is far more bearish than in stocks. Sentiment is turning more sharply downwards, and there are more opinions that "It's over" or "No new ATH until 2025". This can be a bullish sign: While the macro uptrend remains intact, the level of pessimism on social media suggests we could be running out of sellers—though there is, as yet, no confirmation of that on the medium-term timeframe.

While recovering the highs (or sweeping the lows) could happen at any time, it's equally possible that bitcoin might chop around in its current range for another month or two.

Miners continue to capitulate, selling down their bitcoin reserves as they seek to ride out the post-Halving squeeze on revenues. When enough miners go offline, the rest will be profitable again. For the winners, it's just a question of holding on long enough.

The Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows this week. Meanwhile, Microstrategy upped its latest debt offering to finance further bitcoin buys to almost $800 million from $500 million.

Ethereum on exchanges hit an 8-year low. The ETH ETFs are expected to launch at the beginning of July, potentially introducing new demand—though it's unclear how much ETH Grayscale's fund might hemorrhage when it converts to an ETF. In other good news, the SEC has dropped its case against Consensys (and by proxy, Ethereum) entirely.

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

SKALE never fails to impress, and this week, there has been some great news from game development platform Unity!

Not only that, but one of the biggest and best-known AMMs in the DeFi space is now live on SKALE!

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