The news from Planet Ruby—Friday, June 21, 2024
- Signal: Wave 5
- Noise: Wave 4
The NASDAQ has hit a new all-time high above 20,000, helped by tech stocks making significant gains. This is particularly true of Nvidia, which was worth almost $3.5 trillion at one point this week, briefly overtaking Microsoft as the largest company on the planet.
It's not just the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 has also been making new highs, even as the dollar shows renewed strength. The DXY reclaimed 105 last week and remains well above that level (curently 105.7). That should be a headwind for risk, and there are some analysts who are warning of a significant correction for stocks, but it has yet to materialize and there's no way of knowing when the top might come in.
At the G7, Larry Fink drew attention to problems of debt and growth. Average debt-to-GDP for G7 countries is 129%.
BREAKING: "No matter how much we tax, how much we cut or reduce that debt, it will not be enough.“ - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink on national debt 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/alpiygJXiD
— Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻 (@CarlBMenger) June 18, 2024
Underscoring the point, interest payments on the US debt edged above defense spending. Probably nothing to see here.
US federal interest payments now exceed the defense budget. pic.twitter.com/joZadHMP0U
— (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) June 18, 2024
And, in the UK, inflation has finally come back to the Bank of England target of 2%: A welcome but ultimately futile boost for an embattled government whose party will, according to all the polls, be wiped out in the General Election on July 4.
Bitcoin Chops Some More
The mood in the crypto space is far more bearish than in stocks. Sentiment is turning more sharply downwards, and there are more opinions that "It's over" or "No new ATH until 2025". This can be a bullish sign: While the macro uptrend remains intact, the level of pessimism on social media suggests we could be running out of sellers—though there is, as yet, no confirmation of that on the medium-term timeframe.
While recovering the highs (or sweeping the lows) could happen at any time, it's equally possible that bitcoin might chop around in its current range for another month or two.
Day 45 of the Cycle for #bitcoin, clearly in the declining phase of the Daily Cycle.
— Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) June 17, 2024
I don't expect too much bullish action until July and the next Cycle. Lower $60k range is a good spot to be adding. pic.twitter.com/tkn6LzKL8k
Miners continue to capitulate, selling down their bitcoin reserves as they seek to ride out the post-Halving squeeze on revenues. When enough miners go offline, the rest will be profitable again. For the winners, it's just a question of holding on long enough.
How I currently see it
— James Van Straten (@jvs_btc) June 17, 2024
We are currently 33 days into a #Bitcoin miner capitulation, with the average duration over the past five years being 41 days.
Miner addresses collectively hold a substantial treasury of 700,000 BTC, but their balance has decreased by 30,000 BTC since… https://t.co/FM7A7sgfcp pic.twitter.com/iM42LXVDYx
The Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows this week. Meanwhile, Microstrategy upped its latest debt offering to finance further bitcoin buys to almost $800 million from $500 million.
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 11,931 BTC for ~$786.0M using proceeds from convertible notes & excess cash for ~$65,883 per #bitcoin. As of 6/20/24, $MSTR hodls 226,331 $BTC acquired for ~$8.33B at average price of $36,798 per bitcoin.https://t.co/jE9dGqqnON
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) June 20, 2024
Ethereum on exchanges hit an 8-year low. The ETH ETFs are expected to launch at the beginning of July, potentially introducing new demand—though it's unclear how much ETH Grayscale's fund might hemorrhage when it converts to an ETF. In other good news, the SEC has dropped its case against Consensys (and by proxy, Ethereum) entirely.
What's New In The SKALEVERSE?
SKALE never fails to impress, and this week, there has been some great news from game development platform Unity!
Big day for SKALE. SKALE is honored to join the exclusive Unity Publisher Support program.
— Jack O'Holleran (@jackoholleran) June 18, 2024
Supporting developers is the number one goal of the SKALE project and @unitygames. Unity is the global leading game engine and development platform in large part due to their commitment… https://t.co/gMMBphp6i5
Not only that, but one of the biggest and best-known AMMs in the DeFi space is now live on SKALE!
👋 Hey tradooors 👋
— SKALE (@SkaleNetwork) June 20, 2024
🍣 Say hi to DeFi with ZERO gas fees, @SushiSwap is now live on SKALE!
Swap, LP, and more, all at ZERO cost: https://t.co/Y0pXNi6880
Boosted rewards coming VERY soon! 👀 pic.twitter.com/jtn2VUGNZA
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