Capitulation...?

The news from Planet Ruby—Friday, May 3, 2024

• Signal: Trend
• Noise: CZ, FOMC, Samourai, Ver...

TradFi markets have been in correction mode in recent weeks, as they digest both a spectacular rally and the prospect of persistently high inflation (and therefore interest rates).

Wednesday saw falls in major markets, ahead of the FOMC meeting. This ultimately saw the Fed hold rates at 525-550 bps, as expected. Nonetheless, these events are always accompanied by volatility, as traders manage risk and then reallocate funds following the new clarity that follows a decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's indications that rates would need to stay at their current level for a while longer prompted another sell-off.

The dollar remains strong, though the DXY has now dipped close to 105. Another push higher would likely see a further sell-off for risk assets. Lower is probably a prerequisite for a strong renewed rally in risk.

Bitcoin Recovers From The Lows

Price headed downwards this week, dropping below the $60,000 support level on Wednesday to as low as $56,500.

For now, $60k is the immediate target to signal a reversal. Another test of the recent lows might well see prices head down further, potentially down to around $52k or even the high $40k levels. Analysts are split over whether we have seen the bottom.

It has been a bad week for ETFs. Hong Kong launched a number of BTC and ETH ETFs to plenty of hype, but did not deliver on volume. Altogether, the new ETFs attracted just $11 million (USD equivalent) on day 1. However, analysts noted that this was still a success by conventional standards, and given the size of the Hong Kong market.

This should not be surprising. Even Americans aren't buying BTC ETFs at the moment, with funds experiencing heavy outflows this week. Wednesday was a particularly bad day, with $IBIT seeing its first outflows, and the ten US ETFs as whole losing almost 10,000 BTC.

Inflows will presumably return when price gains do. It's also worth noting that the day of the US ETFs launching saw the start of a 20% drawdown as traders sold the news.

Rumor is that Australia might approve spot BTC ETFs later this year. It's unlikely to be game-changing, but it's a part of the overall picture of adoption and normalization.

In other news, CZ has been sentenced to 4 months for allowing money laundering to take place on Binance: A great result for him, since prosecutors were seeking a far longer term.

And Roger Ver, aka "Bitcoin Jesus", has been arrested in Spain and faces extradition back to the US. He is accused of not paying capital gains tax and filing false returns for the $240 million of BTC he sold in 2017. In the crypto world, this crime comes a far second to founding Bitcoin Cash.

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

SKALE staking hasn't always been the most intuitive process, but that's about to change! Staking is now integrated in the SKALE Portal V2.2. Check out the video to learn more.

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