The news from Planet Ruby—Friday, March 15, 2024
- Signal: $100k BTC
- Noise: Old ATH
We're in that phase of the market cycle where bad news isn't bad news any more. Take this week's hotter-than-expected CPI data. As the Kobeissi Letter remarks, "2 months ago, markets expected SIX rate cuts in 2024, double the Fed's forecast. Now, 3 interest rate cuts is beginning to feel optimistic."
BREAKING: February CPI inflation rate RISES to 3.2%, above expectations of 3.1%.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 12, 2024
Core CPI inflation fell to 3.8%, ABOVE expectations of 3.7%.
This is the 35th consecutive month with inflation above 3% and second straight increase.
A Fed pivot is becoming less likely.
TradFi markets blinked, digested the news, and went right back to printing all-time highs. The S&P 500 has been on a steady climb since November, with only the smallest pullbacks in a very orderly rise towards 5,200 and beyond.
Craig Wright Is Not Satoshi Nakamoto
Bitcoin started the week exhibiting exactly the same pattern, though with a little more volatility. At time of publication, its latest ATH is above $73,000.
The narrative continues to be driven by the ETFs. Tuesday saw a record 14,706 BTC inflow: Over a billion dollars. Monday saw a 6,800 BTC outflow for Grayscale (whose GBTC assets nonetheless remain the same in dollar terms due to bitcoin's price increase). At this pace, BlackRock will overtake Grayscale's holdings within a month. In short, things are moving very fast—maybe too fast for a normal, sustainable market cycle.
#bitcoin is showing us a blow-off type 4Year Cycle, not a diminishing returns type.
— Bob Loukas 🗽 (@BobLoukas) March 12, 2024
Also showing a Left Translated Cycle (top before Dec) is real if this doesn't cool off. Unless we get a 6-month consolidation ($70-$100k - yellow) to build into a super cycle.
Sit tight pic.twitter.com/1Z1RdmjG8d
It's possible we are now seeing the beginnings of the correction Loukas called for, which, in the grand scheme of things, would not be bad. On Friday, bitcoin fell back below $70,000, and continued past $68,000, resetting the daily and 4h RSI to levels not seen for two months.
Those with a long-term time preference don't care. Microstrategy has backed the truck up, again, and now holds 205,000 BTC. (Following billion-dollar inflows this week, Saylor has nonetheless been overtaken by BlackRock.)
MicroStrategy has acquired an additional 12,000 BTC for ~$821.7M using proceeds from convertible notes & excess cash for ~$68,477 per #bitcoin. As of 3/10/24, $MSTR hodls 205,000 $BTC acquired for ~$6.91B at average price of $33,706 per bitcoin. https://t.co/YayyKtpz8d
— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) March 11, 2024
Saylor immediately followed this $800 million buy with news of another planned $500 million purchase. Knowing Saylor, it will be far higher than a mere half-billion.
VanEck has removed trading fees for their bitcoin ETF for the next year. While they are currently a minor player in the space, at 7,400 BTC (still $500 million), that might be about to change, as their policy prompted a surge of inflows earlier this week.
First two months officially in the books (it's felt like six) and the ten bitcoin ETFs now have over $55b in assets with exactly double that in volume at $110b. If these were the numbers at the end of year I'd call them a success. To do it in eight weeks is simply absurd. pic.twitter.com/8YvzQZdYyJ
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 11, 2024
In other news, the Satoshi trial has ended with closing arguments from both sides. In a surprise move, Justice Mellor ruled that Wright was not Satoshi on the last day itself, saying a full judgment would be forthcoming in due course. While the ruling was expected (at least by 99% of the crypto community), the timing was telling. Mellor did not need any time to consider the evidence. The truth was already clear.
Judge: I will prepare a fairly long judgement
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) March 14, 2024
I have reached the conclusions the evidence is overwhelming
CSW is not the author of the whitepaper
CSW is not satsohi
CSW is not the creator of Bitcoin
CSW did not author the Bitcoin software
Lastly, Ethereum's Dencun upgrade was activated, offering ultra-low fees for L2 transactions.
What's New In The SKALEVERSE?
There's a new star in the SKALEVERSE. Titan is an enterprise-grade AI-optimized SKALE Chain. Watch this space: We know that AI+blockchain is going to be a killer combination, and SKALE have the infrastructure to make it work.
It was all quiet until SKALE TITAN AI entered the arena…
— Jack O'Holleran (@jackoholleran) March 12, 2024
Welcome SKALE’s newest chain TITAN, the world’s first live, enterprise grade, AI optimized blockchain.
Props to @palmaierc for partnering with @Google’s AI engine to create this AI Blockchain machine https://t.co/Wg1GPW9ixj
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