Craig Wright Is Not Satoshi Nakamoto

The news from Planet Ruby—Friday, March 15, 2024

• Signal: $100k BTC
• Noise: Old ATH

We're in that phase of the market cycle where bad news isn't bad news any more. Take this week's hotter-than-expected CPI data. As the Kobeissi Letter remarks, "2 months ago, markets expected SIX rate cuts in 2024, double the Fed's forecast. Now, 3 interest rate cuts is beginning to feel optimistic."

TradFi markets blinked, digested the news, and went right back to printing all-time highs. The S&P 500 has been on a steady climb since November, with only the smallest pullbacks in a very orderly rise towards 5,200 and beyond.

Craig Wright Is Not Satoshi Nakamoto

Bitcoin started the week exhibiting exactly the same pattern, though with a little more volatility. At time of publication, its latest ATH is above $73,000.

The narrative continues to be driven by the ETFs. Tuesday saw a record 14,706 BTC inflow: Over a billion dollars. Monday saw a 6,800 BTC outflow for Grayscale (whose GBTC assets nonetheless remain the same in dollar terms due to bitcoin's price increase). At this pace, BlackRock will overtake Grayscale's holdings within a month. In short, things are moving very fast—maybe too fast for a normal, sustainable market cycle.

It's possible we are now seeing the beginnings of the correction Loukas called for, which, in the grand scheme of things, would not be bad. On Friday, bitcoin fell back below $70,000, and continued past $68,000, resetting the daily and 4h RSI to levels not seen for two months.

Those with a long-term time preference don't care. Microstrategy has backed the truck up, again, and now holds 205,000 BTC. (Following billion-dollar inflows this week, Saylor has nonetheless been overtaken by BlackRock.)

Saylor immediately followed this $800 million buy with news of another planned $500 million purchase. Knowing Saylor, it will be far higher than a mere half-billion.

VanEck has removed trading fees for their bitcoin ETF for the next year. While they are currently a minor player in the space, at 7,400 BTC (still $500 million), that might be about to change, as their policy prompted a surge of inflows earlier this week.

In other news, the Satoshi trial has ended with closing arguments from both sides. In a surprise move, Justice Mellor ruled that Wright was not Satoshi on the last day itself, saying a full judgment would be forthcoming in due course. While the ruling was expected (at least by 99% of the crypto community), the timing was telling. Mellor did not need any time to consider the evidence. The truth was already clear.

Lastly, Ethereum's Dencun upgrade was activated, offering ultra-low fees for L2 transactions.

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