The News From Planet Ruby—Friday, November 3, 2023
- Signal: $35k, 15 years
- Noise: Cramer, Gensler
Rates On Hold, Markets Recover
The FOMC held headline US interest rates at 5.25-5.50% when it met on Wednesday, as expected. The UK also left rates unchanged at 5.25%, the highest in 15 years, when the Bank of England's MPC met on Thursday.
Markets initially ignored the update, which was the overwhelming expectation, but later took it as a reason for renewed confidence and pushed higher. Following a significant correction over the last three months, stock markets may be on the road to recovery. There's additional hope in the form of a tweet from everyone's favorite counter-signal, Jim Cramer.
The S&P put in a local bottom on October 27, which was followed by V-shaped recovery. Consolidation above 4,200 is required to continue the upward trend, which would of course also give bitcoin a tailwind. The previous top in July, above 4,600, so there's a long way to go before new ATHs (4,800+).
Wars grind on in Europe and the Middle East, though Ukraine has dropped from the headlines as the new conflict opens up. Israel's economy is taking a hit, as hundreds of thousands of reservists are called up, pulling them out of key industries, especially tech. Meanwhile, China's economy is struggling. The country's leadership are now consolidating their control over the markets and economy in an effort to turn things around.
Bitcoin Pushes Above 50% Line, Just
It's almost a year after the bear market low (November 21, 2022). In the last week, BTC found resistance at $34,500, precisely half of the all-time high, and a key level to overcome. Thursday saw the consolidation end, with bitcoin breaking out of its pennant to almost $36,000, the next intermediate resistance level—and a zone not seen since before the Terra collapse in May 2022. The move was short-lived, and retraced back early on Friday.
We ideally want to see price hold above the last swing high of $35,200 ($35k for round numbers), or if not, then to hold that $34,500 old resistance line as support on the daily. Should BTC break lower, the top of the major resistance band at $32k is the next natural place to find support. It's currently trading just below $34,200.
Total crypto market cap continues to rise despite alts losing against BTC. A push above $1.3 trillion would show strength that could indicate a full crypto bull market is back on, following a lengthy bear market and period of consolidation within the $750 billion to $1.3 trillion zone. Right now, it's very close. We may not have much longer to wait.
Long BTC, Short SBF
This week, SBF took the stand in a last-ditch attempt to sway the jury. It did not go well, instead reinforcing the impression that he is an arrogant serial liar who refuses to give a straight answer and believes he is smart enough to dupe everyone he speaks to. Betting odds of a conviction stood at 98% before the jury convened. It took them less than five hours to find him guilty on all charges. He will be sentenced in March, and is facing up to 115 years.
Halloween marked the 15th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper, announced by Satoshi Nakamoto on the Cryptography Mailing List in 2008. Gary Gensler chose to celebrate with a bizarre and cringeworthy tweet that was more disturbing than any costume. Still, was there a hint there? ETF-watchers hope so.
Lastly, institutions are making bullish predictions. Wealth manager AllianceBernstein has suggested that BTC could hit $150,000 by 2025 if an ETF is approved. Researchers for crypto services platform Matrixport give bitcoin a decent chance of hitting $56,000 by the end of this year.
What's New In The SKALEVERSE?
SKALE has hit an incredible new milestone, displaying exponential growth to over 1 million active users for October!
Ruby exchange has updated the UI for its Farm page, including at-a-glance figures for staked and unstaked LP tokens. Click "!" by "Wallet Balance" to bring up the additional information.
This update also sees minor bug fixes, and allows anyone to draw the numbers for completed lotteries to avoid delays in claiming prizes.