On Your Marks

The News From Planet Ruby—Friday, October 20, 2023

• Signal: Demand, Supply
• Noise: ETF, CoinTelegraph, volatility

Conflict Escalates

The war in Israel-Palestine has escalated with the bombing of a hospital in Gaza. Both sides claim the other is responsible, but the episode has understandably enraged the Arab world.

The price of oil is moving higher, having found a local bottom just before the war. A wider regional conflict would likely push prices back towards $100 per barrel, feeding through into global inflation.

The DXY is finally showing weakness and may have put in a local top, which would also give a tailwind to risk assets. Gold, the traditional safe haven asset, is recovering, up  to $1,985 from its low of $1,820 just two weeks ago.

Read Not All Doom And Gloom: Macro Roundup

Bitcoin Breaks Resistance

The week started well for bitcoin, even before the fake ETF approval news (see below). Sunday closed at $27,200, with BTC holding the 50-day moving average as support for the last week.

Monday then saw bitcoin make further gains, before putting in a $2,000 candle to touch $30,000 when CoinTelegraph posted an ill-considered message on Twitter/X, and then fully retracing. However, the market has taken the episode as reason for confidence, closing and holding $28,500 on the daily. It is currently pushing higher, above $29,600, looking to challenge those recent highs.

As a result, BTC is now trading above the 200-day and 200-week moving averages. Confidence will only truly return to the market if it can push above and hold $32k, but there's a cautious optimism in the air.

CoinTelegraph In The Dog House

SBF's trial grinds on, and while there has been nothing as sensational as the testimony Caroline Ellison gave last week, it's not looking much better for Sam. The defense has yet to decide whether to put on a case of their own, calling SBF as a witness—which would be a huge gamble.

The big "news" this week, though, was CoinTelegraph going rogue with a tweet that BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF with iShares had been approved.

This was quickly confirmed to be fake news, doing $100 million damage in liquidations as BTC soared to $30k and retraced within 20 minutes. The "source" turned out to be a post on a Telegram chat.

Even the SEC saw the funny side. Kind of.

Larry Fink took the opportunity to talk about crypto on TV, saying that the rally was about far more than the fake news: It was a "flight to quality" as investors started to wake up to the advantages of crypto.

He later clarified that he could not talk specifically about "bitcoin", only "crypto", because BlackRock has a bitcoin product in the pipeline. Edward Snowden, meanwhile, has warned that ETFs risk compromising Bitcoin's core principle of decentralization.

In other news, Gary Gensler hasn't grown tired of trying to rein in crypto, but he's also set his sights on AI, which he says is likely to cause a financial crisis in the near future. The SEC has also dropped all of its charges against Ripple execs, something Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty described as a "surrender".

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

Ruby has launched user-created raffles. Anyone can now start a new prize draw, set the percentages of the pot that winners are paid, and receive a 15% creator fee!

That's all for this week!

Follow Ruby on Twitter, join us on Discord, and subscribe to the Ruby blog for regular updates.