The Final Countdown

The News From Planet Ruby—Friday, January 5, 2024

Signal: SEC

Noise: Matrixport

The Scene Is Set

The macro narrative for 2024 is in place. While there are differing opinions about when the Fed will take its next decision, the overarching picture is one of falling inflation, falling interest rates, and a falling dollar. As the DXY weakens further, risk assets—including stocks, gold, and crypto—continue to rise.

US national debt has passed $34 trillion, and there doesn't seem to be any prospect of a slowdown—something that only further weakens the dollar.

Elsewhere, the UK is likely going to be in for a rough ride in 2024. A Financial Times survey of leading economists points to high inflation and uneven recovery, with a consensus for no more than 0.5% growth: Not something that will do the government any favors as they eye the coming general election.

In other news, Israel has killed a senior Hamas official with a strike in Lebanon, sparking a harsh reaction from Hezbollah and increasing fears of all-out war in the region.

Fear And Liquidations In Cryptoland

Wednesday brought a huge shakeout, as BTC crashed over $4,000, from $45,500 to $41,400. Most alts dropped by double-digit percentages. Bitcoin saw $600 million in liquidations, with $5 billion in open interest wiped out.

Shenanigans around ETF approval were always on the cards, as big players hunt for over-leveraged traders. The move coincided with a rumor (nothing more) that the SEC would deny all ETFs this month. Structurally, though, nothing has really changed in the market.

The Fear and Greed Index still stood well into Greed territory. At the time of publication, bitcoin is trading around $44,000.

Engagement Farmers Farm Engagement

The final decision date for the ETFs is nearing, with January 8-10 being the expected window. Despite the overwhelming evidence from experts who know the territory well, a survey by popular analyst Ben Cowen suggests that a third of Crypto Twitter doesn't believe approval will happen.

Will a #Bitcoin spot ETF be approved in January 2024 ?
— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) January 4, 2024

Michael Saylor is offloading some $216 million of stock options (315,000 MSTR shares) to cover some obligations and, shockingly, buy more BTC for his own personal stack.

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen argued that the SEC would deny all ETFs, which he said would lead to cascading liquidations and prices back in the $30k range. The publication of the report was immediately blamed for bitcoin's Wednesday crash. However, eagle-eyed observers noted that Matrixport had put out a different article containing precisely the opposite opinion (approval and $50k) on the same day.

Is Bitcoin strong enough to resist the Cramer Syndrome? What happens when an immovable object meets an irresistible force?

JUST IN: Jim Cramer says you can't kill #Bitcoin and it's here to stay. pic.twitter.com/wYKrDqsfQm
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) January 2, 2024

Fortunately, help may be at hand from Peter Schiff, the crypto space's other ever-reliable contrarian indicator.

Be careful what you wish for. The promise of a U.S. listed spot #BitcoinETF has been supporting the #Bitcoin price and speculative demand for years. Once the ETFs are launched and the highly anticipated institutional and other new investor demand does not show up, look out below!
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 2, 2024

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

As the bull market heats up, SKL has seen particularly striking action, and is gaining new followers in the DeFi space. As the native token for the SKALE network's leading AMM, RUBY has also seen some renewed interest. If you're wondering why, it might have something to do with all this...