Uptober Fails To Materialize

The News From Planet Ruby—Friday, October 13, 2023

• Signal: War, USD, HODLers
• Noise: SBF, CSW

War Casts A Shadow

The world now faces the prospect of another major conflict, this time in the Middle East, with no immediate or easy resolution in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war is already straining international cohesion and contributing to high inflation. Should the Israel-Palestine war spread further across the region, it's unclear just how bad things could get, politically or economically.

In the markets, the dollar may have found a local top, as the DXY takes a natural pause in its ascent. 10-year US treasuries have also dropped from their recent highs of almost 4.9%. Global uncertainty may be prompting some traders to take the risk-free option and buy treasuries. Maintaining high yields would, however, potentially reduce the chance of the Fed making any more increases, since the bond market would be doing their work for them.

Yesterday's CPI print came in slightly above expectations, at 3.7% vs the forecast 3.6%, with the more important core CPI reading being the expected 4.1%. (Wednesday's PPI print was hotter than expected, at 2.2%, rather than the forecast 1.6%.) That strengthened the dollar slightly, since it weighs, albeit very slightly, on the side of a rate rise.

Welcome To Downtober?

We're almost two weeks into "Uptober", but it doesn't feel too bullish just yet. For reference, September closed out at just about $27,000. Bitcoin immediate pushed higher and even touched $28,600 on October 2, but since then it's been heading down. Right now, it's trading at $26,800, slightly below its monthly open, having lost the $27,200 support (the September high) on Wednesday. Above that, we still have $28,000 resistance to contend with.

It looks bleak for Bitcoin, which is down 60% from its ATH and suffering various headwinds. However, it's nothing out of the ordinary for this point in the cycle. Alts have had an even worse time, also a miserable but predictable feature of a market that is still in the first year of its new trend.

"Sam Made Me Do It"

Caroline Ellison has been giving evidence this week as Sam Bankman-Fried's trial continues. While it boils down to "Sam made me do it!" and no one comes out of this looking good, it was devastating testimony that could be the nail in the coffin for SBF.

One of the many interesting points to come from her evidence was that SBF instructed her to sell FTX customers' bitcoins to keep the price below $20,000. We don't know the reason, but it raises the question of how "natural" that bear market low really was.

Craig Wright's games continue. We know we shouldn't care, but we can't look away.

It's not all bad for Bitcoin, though. The supply of coins in the hands of long-term holders has hit an all-time high.

Finally, Fidelity having been keeping the moral high ground, with a new research document called Bitcoin First Revisited, aimed at preparing investors (and their $4.5 trillion Fidelity has under management) for better days ahead.

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

There's some huge news for SKALE, as a major new game featuring NBA personalities LaMelo and Lonzo Ball debuts on the network. StrayShot leverages SKALE's fast confirmations and gasless transactions to enable seamless integration of blockchain—enabling extensive on-chain activity and NFT-powered characters, without compromising gameplay.

That's all for this week!

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