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Crypto News

What Recession?


The News From Planet Ruby—Friday, November 10, 2023

  • Signal: OpenAI, $1 trillion interest payments
  • Noise: Bank failure, Grok

We're So Back

TradFi is putting in a storming performance, with stonks powering higher in a V-shaped recovery from their recent low. The S&P put in seven days of straight gains, blasting past the 50% level of the latest correction and targeting 4,400. Yesterday saw a little profit-taking, which is only natural after such a run-up.

S&P 1-day chart, TradingView
The S&P has pulled a strong recovery.

Last week, the DXY broke down from its local top, dropping below the critical 105 level. It has since recovered somewhat, though not yet come close to approaching 107 again. A convincing break lower would confirm increased appetite for risk.

There have been some fatalities this week. WeWork, once worth $47 billion, filed for bankruptcy, the victim of a large stack of debt and reduced demand for office space. And Iowa's Citizens Bank of Sac City gave up the fight, thanks to some bad loans made to the trucking industry. At $66 million, it's a minnow compared to the size of the big fish in the financial sector.

Meanwhile, OpenAI has announced a huge update, with the launch of GPTs and the GPT Store. This promises to revolutionize the AI sector by making it possible to create and sell custom GPTs. The launch has eclipsed Elon's launch of Grok, a sarcastic AI chatbot that has real-time access to Twitter data, and that is modeled on the Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy.

The US is going to need the productivity boost we've been promised from AI. The country passed the $1 trillion mark for the annual cost of interest payments, more than any other category of federal spending except Social Security.

Is $42k BTC In Play?

While there are signs of life from altcoins, bitcoin remains the main game in town, consolidating around the $35k level following its drive higher at the end of October. Yesterday, it pushed higher, touching $38k on renewed ETF optimism. $42,000 is now the next obvious target, representing the 50% mark from the top of the bubble to the bear market bottom. BTC also saw multiple touches of this level in Q1 2022. It's currently trading at $36,400.

BTC-USD chart, TradingView
Anticipation of an ETF approval has pushed the market higher.

November is a notoriously volatile month for crypto, with different years seeing significant gains and losses (unlike October, which is generally a positive month). While we don't know what the next few weeks will bring, a period of calm is probably not on the table.

Alts have gained strongly in the past couple of weeks, led by Solana. ETH was given an extra boost yesterday with the news that BlackRock intends to launch an Ethereum spot ETF. The total crypto market cap has broken out from the $1.3 trillion level at the top of the macro consolidation zone, hinting at the possibility of further upside in the near future.

Total crypto market cap, TradingView
$1.3 trillion is the top of a broad consolidation zone. 

Laser Eyes Are Back In Fashion

The crypto world continues to wait for any hint of ETF approval, with growing confidence that the SEC will cave and give it their rubber stamp within the next two months. Big players including BlackRock are certainly anticipating something, if their unusual marketing spend for November and December gives anything away.

Perhaps some of the delay is down to the SEC struggling to hire crypto experts. Their rules state that these employees should not to own crypto, and apparently no one who understands crypto wants to sell.

NFTs have had quite a week. Despite, or perhaps as a result of, being ridiculed on the Simpsons, volumes rose significantly. Sadly, Bored Apes let the side down, after Yuga hosted a party in which attendees had their eyes burned by harmful levels of UV light.

Laser eye BAYC
It turns out the lasers are going into their eyes.

Lastly, increased activity on Ethereum has increased gas prices, making ETH deflationary once again. 5,400 ETH have been burned over the last week.

What's New In The SKALEVERSE?

Check out the recent Spaces with SKALE CEO Jack O'Holleran, plus industry experts from Unity, SkyMavis, Decrypt and BigTime, discussing the future of blockchain gaming in 2024 and beyond!

That's all for this week!

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